The US economy continues to show signs of strength despite ongoing economic uncertainties and the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. In June, the US added 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics released the latest data on Thursday, revealing that job growth in June exceeded projections, with industries such as healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, as well as state and local government, leading the way. However, the private sector saw a weaker increase in jobs, with only 74,000 added in June, the lowest monthly rise since October 2024.
Economists attribute this slowdown in private sector job growth to factors such as tariff increases, restrictive monetary policy, and concerns about escalating trade tensions. Samuel Tombs, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expressed concerns about the impact of these factors on labor demand, noting that private payrolls excluding healthcare and education have been below average.
Despite the positive headline numbers, the report also highlighted some troubling indicators, such as the increasing Black unemployment rate, which rose to 6.8%, its highest level since January 2022. Glassdoor’s chief economist, Daniel Zhao, pointed out that Black workers may feel the effects of economic downturns more acutely due to job insecurity.
Overall wage growth was weaker than expected, with average hourly wages increasing by only 0.2% in June. Economists speculate that a shrinking labor force may be contributing to the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
Alongside these economic trends, stock markets reacted positively to the jobs report, with the Dow gaining 365 points and the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 also seeing gains. However, concerns about the impact of Trump’s economic policies, particularly tariffs, continue to weigh on investor sentiment and hiring decisions.
The Federal Reserve, which has been monitoring economic data closely, has held off on lowering interest rates despite expectations of a cut. The Fed is wary of the potential inflationary effects of tariff increases and the impact on businesses and consumers. However, some analysts believe that the current labor market dynamics, including a slowdown in labor force growth and immigration flows, may warrant a reevaluation of the Fed’s interest rate policies.
Deutsche Bank analysts have highlighted the importance of the breakeven employment growth level, which indicates the number of jobs needed to keep pace with population growth. Demographic shifts, an aging population, and changes in immigration policies could affect this breakeven threshold, potentially impacting inflation and the Fed’s rate decisions.
As the US economy navigates these challenges, policymakers will need to carefully monitor economic data to make informed decisions that support sustainable growth and employment opportunities for all. Despite the positive job numbers in June, underlying trends suggest ongoing concerns that need to be addressed to ensure a stable and prosperous economic future.